Middle East
Social transformations, structures of power and changing regional balances.
Middle East
Hormuz: the race against three clocks
The struggle over Hormuz is also a struggle over who can afford to wait. Washington faces an electoral deadline, Iran’s rulers face mounting economic costs, and Iranian society could upset both calculations. November 3 may change the balance; it cannot determine the outcome.
Why Washington Failed to See Iran’s Revolution Coming
Drawing on Scott Anderson’s King of Kings, this essay examines American blindness, the Shah’s indecision and the convergence of crises that enabled Khomeini’s ascent.
The War’s Second Phase Is About Denial—Not Yet Regime Change
Washington is preparing to prevent the Islamic Republic from rebuilding military power. That strategy may increase pressure on the regime itself, but the available evidence does not establish a shared policy of overthrow.
From Venezuelan Oil to the Islamic Republic’s Survival Crisis
Six months of war have not toppled the regime. They have altered its conditions of survival, bringing oil revenue, relations with China and the interests of Iran’s ruling institutions into a prolonged test of endurance.
Iran and History’s Cunning: The Rise and Possible Decline of Political Islam
Iran helped bring political Islam to state power in 1979. The convergence of social change and regional decline may open a path beyond religious rule, but only a citizen-led political process can give that path legitimacy.
Why Israel’s Iran Regime-Change Plan Failed
Air power, Kurdish forces and a figurehead could not substitute for defections, domestic organisation or political legitimacy. The failure exposes the distance between regime collapse and democratic transition.
War and Political Rupture: The Limits of the Iraq and Afghanistan Analogy
Iraq and Afghanistan are reasons for caution, not a predetermined future for Iran. War’s effects depend on social change, institutional choices and the political capacity to organise a transition.
Who Is the United States Fighting in Iran?
Washington’s problem goes beyond choosing between force and diplomacy. It is to identify an authority capable of making decisions, binding institutions and taking responsibility after Khamenei’s death.
The Ahmadinejad Gambit and the Limits of Insider Change
The reported Mossad approach to a former Iranian president exposes the appeal—and the weakness—of seeking political transformation through a regime insider rather than an organised transition.
From Ideology to Influence: The Islamic Republic Beyond Its Borders
Ideological affinities, material interests, contested narratives and transnational repression operate through different mechanisms. Understanding them requires documented connections rather than treating every disagreement or contact with Iran as evidence of dependence.